Multipack Cocoa Sandwich Cake
Price sensitivity and changes in expected demand across the tested range of 65–95 TRY.
Three zones of price response
Expected demand is at least 50%.
Drop between two consecutive prices: 27.3 percentage points.
Expected demand is below 10%.
What changes at each price step?
| Price | Expected demand | Expected revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 65 TL | 76.4% | 49,635.9 TL |
| 70 TL | 68.6% | 48,046.32 TL |
| 75 TL | 59.8% | 44,852.5 TL |
| 80 TL | 45.2% | 36,125.58 TL |
| 85 TL | 17.8% | 15,150.57 TL |
| 90 TL | 6.4% | 5,804.61 TL |
| 95 TL | 1.8% | 1,750.8 TL |
Expected revenue: price × expected demand × 1,000. Revenue peaks at 65 TL. Lower prices were not tested; a definitive optimum cannot be inferred.
WTP coverage
Those willing at every tested price are included in the group with a WTP value. Average WTP is not an unconditional average across the whole panel.
How does WTP vary by segment?
Groups are ranked by average willingness to pay. Values come from the study’s segment report.
| Segment | People / Share | Average WTP | Best tested price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shared consumption | 65 / 6.5% | 85.74 TL | 80 TL |
| Planned shopping | 195 / 19.5% | 83.51 TL | 75 TL |
| Occasional consumption | 64 / 6.4% | 82.9 TL | 75 TL |
| Online convenience | 66 / 6.6% | 81.79 TL | 65 TL |
| Premium preference | 34 / 3.4% | 79.35 TL | 65 TL |
| Spontaneous snacking | 186 / 18.6% | 78.02 TL | 65 TL |
| Neighbourhood shopping | 195 / 19.5% | 77.26 TL | 65 TL |
| Value shopping | 195 / 19.5% | 76.43 TL | 65 TL |
| Segment | People / Share | Average WTP | Best tested price |
|---|---|---|---|
| SES C1 | 252 / 25.2% | 81.56 TL | 70 TL |
| SES B | 272 / 27.2% | 80.91 TL | 65 TL |
| SES A | 242 / 24.2% | 79.87 TL | 65 TL |
| SES C2 | 234 / 23.4% | 76.33 TL | 65 TL |
Method and interpretation
Synthetic panel
The same 1,000 synthetic personas evaluated both products. These are directional simulation results, not a survey of real participants or observed sales data.
Average willingness to pay (WTP)
The average covers only responses with a WTP value: 799 observations for the cake and 801 for the wafer. A missing value means no willingness to buy at any tested price. Those willing at every tested price are recorded at the highest tested price, so their true WTP may be higher.
Expected demand
The percentage shown is the model’s expected purchase probability at each tested price. It is not an average of raw yes/no responses or an observed sales conversion rate.
Expected revenue
Calculated as price × expected demand × panel size. It is for comparing tested prices within the same product, not a sales or turnover forecast.
Test range
Revenue peaks at the lowest tested price for both products. Lower prices were not tested, so this is not a definitive optimum. Different pack formats also mean absolute prices should not be compared directly.
Segment results
Average WTP and best tested price are shown as reported for each shopping-behaviour and socioeconomic group. Segment probability curves are not in this dataset, so segment peaks cannot be recalculated independently. Consistency within the data file does not mean the model’s research validity has been verified.